Recently, The New York Times tweeted a thought-provoking statement by David E. Sanger, the newspaper’s national security correspondent: “What is the long-term impact of the leak of classified Pentagon documents about the Ukraine war? How does it compare to…” Unfortunately, Mr. Sanger did not complete his thought in this tweet; however, it raises some intriguing questions.
One of the most prominent leaks related to Ukraine was that of Wikileaks’ publication of over 250,000 diplomatic cables in November 2010. These cables contained confidential information regarding U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy with other nations worldwide. In particular, they revealed candid assessments by American diplomats regarding Ukrainian politics and corruption.
The Wikileaks disclosures were highly embarrassing for both Washington and Kiev at the time. They exposed discussions between U.S. officials on how to deal with then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s alleged corrupt activities and human rights abuses.
Additionally, there were revelations about Ukrainian politicians who had worked with Russia to undermine their country’s sovereignty during its Orange Revolution protests in 2004-05 – specifically Yanukovych himself.
However much these revelations may have been an embarrassment for those involved or implicated in them at the time; one could argue that they ultimately did not cause significant long-term damage from a geopolitical perspective.
On reflection though it seems like Mr Sanger wasn’t referring specifically to Wikileaks but rather recent allegations made by The Intercept against Russian hackers linked to military intelligence stealing classified documents relating directly to Ukraine War II from French defense contractor Thales Group.
These latest allegations potentially reveal sensitive information about defence equipment used by Ukraine in its fight against pro-Russian separatists such as surface-to-air missile systems among others which would be extremely valuable information for any opposing force including Russia itself
Whilst comparing different leaks is difficult as each has unique contexts surrounding them one could argue that this may indeed have a greater long-lasting impact than the Wikileaks disclosures.
The information contained in the Thales leak has yet to be fully identified, but it is not difficult to imagine how valuable it could be for Russia or other hostile actors in any future conflict with Ukraine.
Moreover, the leak comes at a time when tensions between Moscow and Kiev are still high following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its subsequent support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.
It is worth noting that both the United States and France have accused Russian military intelligence of being behind this theft of documents. Therefore, if these allegations are true; then the long-term impact could be significant as they would indicate an ongoing pattern of aggressive behavior by Russia towards Ukraine.
In conclusion, whilst we cannot say definitively which leak will have greater long-term consequences – much depends on what specific information was released – one could argue that the recent Thales breach may indeed pose a more significant threat to international security than previous leaks such as those relating to Wikileaks.