In the vast expanse of the universe, there are countless celestial bodies that pose a potential threat to life on Earth. One such object is Apophis, a near-Earth asteroid that has captured the attention of scientists and astronomers around the world.
Named after an ancient Egyptian god associated with chaos and destruction, Apophis was discovered in 2004 by astronomers at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. At the time of its discovery, it was estimated to be around 320 meters in diameter, making it one of the largest potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA) known to exist.
What makes Apophis particularly concerning is its orbit. Initially, there were concerns that it could collide with Earth during a close approach in 2029. However, subsequent observations revealed that this scenario was highly unlikely as Apophis would pass within just 32,000 kilometers (20,000 miles) of our planet’s surface – closer than some satellites but still safely distant from us.
However, what makes Apophis stand out among other PHAs is its future trajectory. It will make another close approach to Earth in 2036 when it passes within about 37 million kilometers (23 million miles) of our planet – still far beyond any immediate danger zone. But over time its orbit will change due to gravitational interactions with other objects in space and solar radiation pressure.
Scientists estimate that there is a small chance – roughly one-in-150-thousand – that Apophis could hit Earth sometime between 2068 and 2103. While those odds may seem low for now given how far away we are from those years currently being discussed by experts like NASA’s Paul Chodas – who has been monitoring this asteroid closely – they are significant enough for us not to disregard them altogether.
If such an impact were to occur at full force — which would depend on variables such as angle and speed — it could release energy equivalent to tens of thousands of nuclear bombs, causing widespread devastation and loss of life.
Fortunately, there are efforts underway to better understand Apophis and mitigate the risk it poses. In 2022, NASA is planning to launch a mission called DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) that will test a method for deflecting asteroids away from Earth’s orbit.
The DART spacecraft will target a smaller asteroid named Didymos that orbits the Sun with an irregularly shaped moonlet in tow. When DART reaches its destination in late 2022 or early 2023, it will intentionally collide with the moonlet at high speed while observing how much its trajectory changes as part of this experiment on asteroid deflection techniques.
While this technology has never been tested before outside of simulations and computer models, it could potentially be used to redirect larger asteroids like Apophis if necessary. However, given the vast distances involved and uncertainty about future trajectories, any potential deflection would have to be done decades in advance.
In addition to space missions like DART, astronomers around the world continue to monitor Apophis using ground-based telescopes and observatories. By tracking its position and trajectory over time, they can refine their understanding of its orbit and make more accurate predictions about potential future impacts on Earth.
Despite all these efforts to study Apophis closely – we still do not know enough about what may happen in the distant future when our planet could be at risk again from this celestial body. Therefore it’s crucial that institutions around the globe work together towards developing contingency plans for such scenarios — including evacuation strategies or shelter-in-place procedures— should such actions become necessary one day due to an impending impact event by objects like Apophis.
To conclude: though we cannot predict with certainty what may happen beyond our lifetimes – let alone next week- one thing is certain: remaining vigilant is key when dealing with such natural disasters because being prepared can make all the difference between life and death.